National bureau of economic research recession dating

The choice of March 1991 as the trough date was based primarily on the fact that various averages of the monthly indicators reached clear troughs in that month. It determined that the most recent trough occurred in the first quarter of 1991.

The NBER also maintains a quarterly chronology of the U. Committee members are: William Branson, Princeton University; Martin Feldstein, NBER President; Benjamin Friedman, Harvard University; Robert Gordon, Northwestern University; Robert Hall, chairman, of Stanford University; Geoffrey Moore, Columbia University; and Victor Zarnowitz, University of Chicago.

Other measures of output and sales, especially outside the goods industries, have also shown solid growth since late last year.The trough signifies both the end of a recession and the beginning of a recovery or business expansion.NBER President Eli Shapiro, who was unable to attend the committee's meeting, reviewed the minutes before releasing this statement. Each of the major indicators reached a peak in a different month. Real manufacturing and trade sales pealced in August. The committee noted that the various indicators of economic activity normally used to determine the month of the business cycle peak were generally flat during the summer of 1990.

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